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The Madrid Bombings - Criminals Militias and Crime in Iraq, Phil Williams SSI Book Launch CLAI

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2021-9-26 published at Spiritual/ Inspirational category

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1.Criminals Militias and InsurgentsOrganized Crime in Iraq Phil Williams SSI Book Launch CLAI, George Washington University August 26, 2009 1
2.Introduction Appreciation to SSI – Professor Douglas Lovelace and Dr. Steven Metz for the opportunity and support – encouraged an open academic approach Collegiality of SSI colleagues and GSPIA Thanks to the CLAI – Ray Marin Thanks to Dr William Rosenau and Dr John Picarelli 2
3.3 OVERVIEW Quiz The Rise of Organized Crime in Iraq Dimensions of Organized Crime in Iraq Criminal-Insurgent Cooperation The Slippery Criminal Slope Causes of Strategic Surprise in Iraq Intelligence and Military Contingencies
4.Fill in the blanks Organized crime in the “…” centers on drug trafficking and the related problem of gang violence and firearms use” (Janes) Feature of “…” organized crime is involvement of individuals with a paramilitary background. Younger criminals more violent 4
5.Fill in the blanks Organized crime in the Republic of Ireland centers on drug trafficking and the related problem of gang violence and firearms use” Feature of Irish organized crime is involvement of individuals with a paramilitary background. Younger criminals more violent 5
6.Fill in the blanks (2) Three kinds of criminal organizations operating in “…” have been identified as follows: Hierarchical Hermit crab like (front companies) Networked organizations “…” is facing a massive upsurge of organized crime as a result of economic liberalization, urbanization and a huge migrant population 6
7.Fill in the blanks (2) Three kinds of criminal organizations operating in China have been identified as follows: Hierarchical Hermit crab like (front companies) Networked organizations China is facing a massive upsurge of organized crime as a result of economic liberalization, urbanization and a huge migrant population 7
8.Fill in the blanks (3) Journal article in Europe-Asian Studies - The State Under Siege: The drug trade and organized crime in “…” “Organized crime has the potential to severely damage the “…” state’s legitimacy both domestically and in the international arena.” “Ties to drug trafficking are endemic in the state structures of “…” 8
9.Fill in the blanks (3) Journal article in Europe-Asian Studies - The State Under Siege: The drug trade and organized crime in Tajikistan “Organized crime has the potential to severely damage the Tajik state’s legitimacy both domestically and in the international arena.” “Ties to drug trafficking are endemic in the state structures of Tajikistan 9
10.Fill in the blanks (4) Organized crime in “……..” is characterized by: Extensive use of kidnappings Clashes among rival groups Corruption in the oil industry Bank robberies Extortion Heavily armed criminal organizations Government military clashes with criminals 10
11.Fill in the blanks (4) Organized crime in “Mexico” is characterized by: Extensive use of kidnappings Clashes among rival groups Corruption in the oil industry Bank robberies Extortion Heavily armed criminal organizations Government military clashes with criminals 11
12.Fill in the blanks (5) Organized crime in “…” is characterized by: Extensive use of kidnappings Clashes among rival groups Corruption in the oil industry Bank robberies Extortion Heavily armed criminal organizations Government military clashes with criminals 12
13.Fill in the blanks (5) Organized crime in “Iraq” is characterized by: Extensive use of kidnappings Clashes among rival groups Corruption in the oil industry Bank robberies Extortion Heavily armed criminal organizations Government military clashes with criminals 13
14.Organized crime and corruption in Iraq are far from unique, they exist there in highly concentrated forms. - major impact on stability and reconstruction effort Conflict and crime dynamics remain little understood but increasingly connected Seen a variation on this in Afghanistan – substitute opium for oil 14
15.Iraq – similarities Parallels between Iraq and Albania – state collapse in 1997 Parallels with Russia Parallels – Odessa and Basra Parallels – Niger Delta and Basra Overtones of organized crime in Chicago and gang warfare in Los Angeles Particularly virulent form 15
16.Rise of organized crime in Iraq Often a characteristic of dictatorships but controlled by political elite Saddam as the Godfather -becoming more brittle – Saddam used tribes Circumvention of sanctions Protocols for oil smuggling – Jordan, Syria, Egypt and Turkey – earned $10.99 billion OFF program – kickbacks and surcharges 16
17.Criminalizing impact of sanctions -Andreas Developed collusive relations with smugglers Elevated role of organized crime Established regional criminal networks – transnational social capital Expansion of underground economy (65%) Power of state dominated organized crime Then – state collapse 17
18.Collapse of the state Release of 100,000 prisoners by Saddam Power vacuum created opportunity space for organized crime Theft of copper from pylons Coalition forces allowed looting – (British in Basra) contributed to culture of lawlessness. UNODC report - Summer 2003 - prescient 18
19.Anomie, Looting, and Lawlessness Degeneration of norms/standards Failure to stop the looting a culture of lawlessness Pervasive corruption 19
20.High levels of unemployment Limited opportunities in legal economy – people migrate to the illegal Insurgents, AQI, and criminals operated in same space – overlap and intersect Insurgency funding: FREs then charities and couriers to self-financing through crime. 20
21.First Wave of Organized Crime in Iraq In fact many activities seen as about terror or insurgency had more to do with organized crime Major activities include Eviction of Sunnis by Mahdi Army – financial Kidnapping – extensive activity and targets Oil Smuggling – some pipeline attacks designed to ensure tanker trucks operate 21
22.Second Wave of Organized Crime in Iraq All players in Iraq engaged in organized crime activities Appropriation of criminal methods for political-military fundraising Militias – Jaish-al-Mahdi AQI – all sorts of criminal activity (Madrid) Sunni Tribes – various opportunists 22
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25. Dimensions of Organized Crime in Iraq 3 major activities: Theft diversion and Smuggling of Oil Kidnapping Extortion Additional activities: drug trafficking and bank robberies antiquities, women, cars, corruption schemes – close links between organized crime and political elites 25
26.Theft Diversion and Smuggling of Oil and Refined Products Built on sanctions-busting 3 dimensions Crude oil production – official figures suggest that miss 100,000 to 300,000 barrels per day ($5-15 Million) Theft and poor oversight at Bayji oil refinery Imported products diverted and sold on black market or re-exported 26
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29.Fight for control in Basra over oil Fadhila Party Badr Organization Mahdi Army Fight for taxing of illegal oil revenues Similar to some of resource wars in Africa 29
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31.Fuel truck staging at Habur border gate 31
32.Fuel truck staging at Habur border gate 32
33.Problem of gauges and instruments for measurement Steal from pipelines – tapped Internal black market in gasoline – higher than official prices – so Mahdi Army presence at lots of gas stations Lots of smuggling from Basra Reduced by Charge of the Knights 33
34.Kidnapping Ideal crime Generate fear and highlight inability of government to provide security, High financial payoff - Iraq Sow dissension in Coalition Sometimes crime dressed as politics Philippine government Kidnapping group video – increase ransom 34
35.Kidnapping Most economic kidnapping is about Iraqis Started with: Children of upper middle class Merchants Doctors Professors From outrageous demands to accept realistic payments (10%) - pragmatic 35
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39.High profile kidnapping of foreigners from April 2004 – some about message Kidnapping gangs sold victims to jihadis Profits were significant and beheadings were counter-productive Kidnappings linked to assassinations - bodies dropped where picked up Sometimes linked to stolen cars 39
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41.Kidnapping of foreigners in Iraq Based on the Brookings Institution’s Iraq Index 41
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44.The Profits Estimate of $140 Million from Iraqis $45 million from France, Italy, Germany Still difficulty of assessment – under-reported by Iraqis US hostage office only concerned with its own citizens or Iraqis who are important to the Coalition Allowed pervasive insecurity to continue 44
45.Extortion Extortion - based on territorial control Gives insurgency the quality of Mafia in the strict sense (Gambetta/Varese/Hill) – the business of private protection – purely predatory to real protection Taxing economic activity Licit – cattle ranching Illicit – smuggling 45
46.Extortion Target merchants and market stalls Militias and criminal organizations control the roads - used this to extort contractors who inflate the prices charged to the US accordingly. Some goes to “insurgency” Result is that US is supplying the money used by various factions. 46
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50.The Dominant Commodity Violence and crime center on dominant commodity – 3 kinds of players For profit criminals Those with a cause Corrupt government officials after rents Drugs in Colombia and Afghanistan Oil in Iraq 50
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52.Conditions for Criminal-Insurgent Cooperation Natural affinity and common culture – Chechnya Territorial co-location – common interest in limiting government and governance Co-location in opportunity space Kidnapping groups in Iraq sold to jihadi groups Sometimes supply driven Sometimes demand driven Sometimes explicit often tacit 52
53.When insurgencies engage in do it yourself organized crime more likely that they cooperate with criminal organizations Market relationships – suppliers and customers Insurgents need “criminal service providers” Sometimes one-off transactions Some simple exploitation, some symbiotic Some tactical alliances A few strategic alliances – stability in relationship 53
54.The Slippery Criminal Slope Loss of cohesion – disputes over division of resources Loss of identity – back to Metz and the notion of spiritual and commercial insurgencies – relegation of the cause – Pentagon Gang Loss of legitimacy – JAM members criminal activities in Sadr City Opportunities for wedge-driving or coopting the insurgency – Burma and Anbar 54
55.The paradoxical consequences of criminal activities for insurgencies – sustain and help perpetuate the insurgency but also danger of undermining it from within. The problem of imposed external labels – insurgents and criminals have own reality, imperatives and logic which are internally driven rather than externally imposed – same person can a greedy criminal AND a committed insurgent 55
56. Organized Crime in Iraq as Strategic Surprise Criminal enterprises became a major spoiler Insurgents, terrorists and militias appropriated criminal activities (car theft) Not new – Russia in the 1990s – Fritz Ermarth argued that neither intelligence nor policy-makers appreciated crime and corruption problem Mark Edmond Clark – Balkans as model UNODC report - indifference and resistance 56
57.Causes of Strategic Surprise Grooved thinking and labeling – organized crime simply law enforcement not military problem Poor use of analogies - organized crime in US seen as model – but more virulent in failed states Dominance of strategic perspective – Iraq as proliferation challenge not Iraq as criminalized state – “criminalization consequences of sanctions” not fully appreciated 57
58.Wishful thinking – regime change without pain - expand order to the periphery – (dominant trend might be the other way) Ethnocentrism and corruption – western democracies are the anomaly – the state as the prize – politics is zero sum and patrimonial relationships are the norm 58
59.Intelligence and Military Contingencies Need organized crime impact statement – like old arms control impact statements Team Assessment – areas specialists, criminal analysts and methodologists Current state of organized crime Future development of organized crime – impact of intervention Potential points of leverage 59
60.Need to fuse law enforcement and national security intelligence Obstacles are real but growing military emphasis on rule of law is positive Need creation of multi-agency intelligence task force on post-conflict with mutual learning process facilitated by personnel exchanges to encourage cross-fertilization 60

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