1.Session 2: Workshop: Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones: The Way Ahead
Moderator: Dr. Paul Try, Senior VP, STC
Rapporteurs: Ms. Mary Cairns (OFCM)
Mr. Floyd Hauth (OFCM/STC)
Panelists: Mr. Mark Welshinger, OFCM
Dr. Frank Marks, HRD
Dr. Ramesh Kakar, NASA
Dr. Naomi Surgi, NCEP
Dr. Richard Hodur, NRL-Monterey
Dr. Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island
2.Strategic Research Plan Overview
Interagency tropical cyclone plan that encompasses all applicable Federal agencies
Grass-roots-up approach to meet the needs of the three operational tropical cyclone forecast and warning centers
TPC/NHC, CPHC, and JTWC
Needs characterized by seven tropical cyclone-related, day-to-day operational forecast and warning categories
Intensity
Structure
Track
Sea state
Strategy / recommendations focus on R&D, enhanced coordination / collaboration, transition of research to operations, and increased funding
Storm surge
Precipitation
Observations
3.Panel: Related Comments
-- R2O Needs Greater Emphasis (Sensor/DA/Modeling/Outreach)
Sensors:
-- New Satellite and Aircraft capabilities Improving the System
-- Continuing support for outyear new technologies (e.g., GEO MW array tech.)
Modeling:
Good Systematic/Well Planned Model Upgrades
-- Moving to ESMF
-- Need for Community standards (grids, etc.,) for > interoperability
-- Ocean/Wave coupling coming soon
-- Research Results Not Fully Realized/Optimized
-- Major Improvements in Capability on Horizon!!! BUT ”IFF” (if and only if)
Effective Research (incl:data analysis) and Planned R2O
Must have greater Human and Computer Capacity Resources
(i.e., Supplements in both research (B/A) and R2O required)
4.Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead
1st Step: Necessary comprehensive basis to build focused implementation on!
Summary: Plan’s Primary Features:
-- Strategic
-- Comprehensive
-- Collaborative
(Multi-agency Consensus)
-- Identifies Resources Required
-- Identifies Gaps
5.Interagency Strategic Research Plan for Tropical Cyclones The Way Ahead
Next Step (Actions):
-- OFCM Multiagency Coordinated Effort
(Leverage agency expertise, funding, mission needs, etc.,)
-- 10 year TC Research Implementation Plan
(Brief: Focused, Annual Review/Update, Timelines, Milestones, etc.,)
-- NWP Development Improvement Plan
(w/>R2O; > Academia; >resources)
-- Strategic TC Recon Improvement Plan
(incl: Manned, unmanned, satellite + Observing Strategies)
-- OFCM Continue Review Hurricane Warning System
-- Increase Focus on Deficiency in NWP Professionals